Heading to your friendly tiendita or bodega could get more expensive. Bodegas and other small businesses are feeling the impact of recent tariffs through higher costs, supply chain disruptions, and pressure on profit margins. When President Donald Trump announced weeks ago sweeping tariffs for many nations that including delicate US trade relations with Latin America. The most significant measures include a 25% blanket tariff on all Mexican imports, as well as a 10% baseline tariff for Colombian goods. This strategic move has sparked nationwide concerns from experts who foresee prices shooting up and financial distress for the American people. After the recent Black Monday in the global stock market, economists fear a plunge in the consumer’s purchasing power and general instability across the region.
This isn’t the first time Trump has used tariffs as a political tool. During his previous term in 2019, he threatened to impose a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports, plus a 10% increase after 30 days and another 5% in the following months, with the aim to stop illegal immigrants. Today, his protectionism has taken a more aggressive turn, particularly aimed at countries in Latin America. Even his political allies haven’t missed the chop: his Argentinian crony Javier Milei, who has traveled to the US ten times since he became president, has also been given a 10% tariff.
As a result of Trump’s decisions, your typical American household will lose $3,800 of purchasing power per year, according to the Budget Lab at Yale University. Let’s take a closer look at which Latin American goods are in the crosshairs, and what that means for consumers and economies on both sides of the border.
Mexico: Cars, Electronics, Produce & Tequila at Risk
The economies of the US and Mexico are deeply intertwined. According to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, American goods imports from Mexico totaled $505.9 billion in 2024, so the recent tariffs are threatening to devastate industries that rely on cross-border trade.
The Wilson Center has also conducted a market investigation to determine the five most vulnerable sectors. First of all, the automotive industry, which represents 25% of Mexico’s exports, may suffer a 15-20% drop (this amounts to a potential loss of $12-18 billion.) However, factors like the devaluation of the peso and a rigid supply chain soften the blow to an 8-12% decline. Of course, less supply can equal a rise in vehicles, repairs, and even insurance, plus a potential decrease in American purchases. A similar situation is happening with the electronics and machinery industry, amounting to 16% of Mexico’s exports. Because the American market deeply relies on these goods, production costs may increase, so keep an eye on the prices of TVs, fridges, and other appliances.
Then, the University of California, Davis places Mexico as the leading foreign supplier of tomatoes, avocados, raspberries, bell peppers, and strawberries for the US. These imports represent more than 50% of fruits and almost 70% of vegetables, some of which are shipped across the border monthly, while others are seasonal products. Trump’s tariffs may seem catastrophic for Latinx land workers (whose wages are low enough as they are) and for Americans going to the grocery store. However, it’s possible that producers and importers will prioritize staying competitive by absorbing some of the costs, a tactic that would keep prices down. Another product that could suffer a price increase is beer and tequila. According to Forbes, in 2023 Modelo became the best-selling beer brand in the US, so alcoholic beverages can become significantly more expensive. This would affect bars across the country as well.
Finally, the textiles and apparel industry is also at risk due to Trump’s tariffs. CNN’s Style section states that the US is one of the largest consumers of apparel and footwear worldwide, importing more than 98% of its clothing and around 99% of its shoes. A shake in the fashion sector will deeply affect countless local and regional businesses, both multinationals and SMEs. According to the Yale Budget Lab Analysis, prices of leather products like gloves and handbags will increase by 18.3%, clothing and shoes will suffer a 16.9% rise, and goods like wool and silk will see a 10.9% increase.
The US relies on Mexico’s textile exports, but this is a very price-sensitive market due to its strong competitors from Asia, such as China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. But thankfully, Trump’s whopping tariffs on these countries (as well as China’s counterattack) will make a market substitution difficult. This will soften the blow on Mexico and keep it as a viable supplier, especially if we consider its proximity to the US as a logistical advantage.
Colombia: Oil, Coffee & Cut Flowers Under Strain
According to the US Department of State, the United States is Colombia’s largest trading partner, with a total amounting to 34%; besides, Colombia is among the top ten of its crude oil suppliers, so it’s a force to be reckoned with. A 10% baseline tariff on oil imports could lead to higher fuel costs for Americans, especially in states heavily reliant on foreign supply. However, because refined petroleum is one of the biggest exports from the US to Colombia, this will also affect prices in Latin America, as NBC News has stated.
Moving on, coffee is one of the products that generates the largest inflow of foreign exchange for Colombia. According to the OEC, this is the country’s second-largest export, amounting to $3.19 billion in 2023 and $1.23 billion in US exports, its top destination. This is a product that has already been showing an increase in price: the Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that there was a 3.8% rise in 2024, which went above inflation’s overall rate. This means that Americans can expect a shift in prices in coffee shops across the US.
Cut flowers is another product that will suffer the weight of the tariffs because it’s Colombia’s third biggest export to the US (representing $1.6 billion, according to NBC News). This may seem like a product only wealthy people purchase on a daily basis, but flower bouquets are a part of all social classes’ major life events—births, weddings, yearly celebrations like Valentine’s and Mother’s Day, birthdays, funerals, etc.
A Political Weapon, Not an Economic Strategy
Despite the economic havoc these tariffs are already causing, it’s becoming increasingly clear that President Trump’s motivations are not rooted in trade imbalances or fiscal recovery but in political retaliation. These punitive measures disproportionately target countries seen as “enemies” like Mexico and Colombia, mostly because they are a part of the source of a large group of immigrants that travel to the US in search of a better life, whether seeking asylum or simply work. This is only a nationalist agenda cloaked in protectionist rhetoric that will end up hurting the same workers Trump claims to be helping.
This isn’t about goods: it’s about borders. And Latin America, once again, is being made the scapegoat.
Resumen en español: Qué productos fabricados en Latinoamérica serán más caros por los aranceles de Trump
El presidente Donald Trump ha anunciado una serie de aranceles que podrían transformar las relaciones comerciales entre Estados Unidos y América Latina. Entre las medidas más significativas se encuentra un arancel del 25% a todas las importaciones provenientes de México y un 10% de base para los productos colombianos. Estas políticas han generado preocupación por su potencial impacto en el poder adquisitivo de los estadounidenses, con una pérdida estimada de 3.800 dólares por hogar al año.
